What impact will Trump’s mass deportations plan have on the economy?

The Eisenhower model

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

In September 2024, Donald Trump told a crowd of supporters he intends on implementing “the Eisenhower model” in relation to immigration law. The Eisenhower model refers to a 1954 campaign by then-President Dwight D. Eisenhower to conduct a mass removal of Mexican immigrants.

Irreparable harm

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

Although the scheme was temporary, it caused irreparable harm. Millions of Mexicans had come to the United States through joint immigration programs, to aid in labor shortages. Mexico was experiencing labor shortages of their own, and so it requested the assistance of the US government to implement this plan.

Mass deportation

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

Tactical, military strategies were used to round up mass amounts of immigrants, who were then sent via land, air, and sea to Mexico, abandoned by the American government.

Forced to reconstruct lives

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

Deplorable holding conditions and violence from officials led to the death of some immigrants. Those who survived were dropped in random Mexican cities, forced to reconstruct their lives in foreign contexts.

New Deal programs

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

This wasn’t the first time that Mexicans had faced this kind of deportation violence. The American government also deported over one million Mexicans, 60% of which were American citizens, during the implementation of the 1930's New Deal programs.

Raids on workplaces

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

The US government implemented their severe deportation plan in order to keep Mexicans from accessing welfare programs. Raids on workplaces like factories and farms were conducted, marking a dark period for Latinos in American history.

DACA

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

During Trump’s first presidential term, his attempt to deport the over 700,000 beneficiaries of programs like Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), which protects undocumented people who were brought to the United States as children, was halted by the United States Supreme Court.

Entryways to uproot current policies

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

In conjunction with Trump’s selection of advisers, cabinet officials, and lawyers, which will be geared toward finding entryways to uproot policies in favor of immigration loopholes, his new administration will likely find the methods to implement his plans of action.

Additional plans

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

Trump also plans on ending the country’s refugee program, as well as barring entries from several countries, primarily from Muslim-majority nations, a continuation and expansion of policies from his first term.

Third-country agreements

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

Taking inspiration from far-right European leaders, Trump also seeks to enact third-country agreements in Central and South America, Africa, and Asia. Under this scheme, asylum processes would be outsourced.

Likely a violation of law

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

Critics of similar programs elsewhere argue that this strategy is likely in violation of international law, utilizing these methods in efforts to deter claims arbitrarily deemed as illegitimate.

Ending birthright

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

Trump is also planning to end birthright citizenship for those born in the United States to undocumented parents, a measure that would need to be argued in the Supreme Court to amend a constitutional clause.

Ideological qualms

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

Reiterating Trump’s support for Israeli policy, he has also promised to cancel visas of foreign students who have participated in pro-Palestine protests. This measure would be implemented in conjunction with efforts to increase ideological screenings during visa application processes.

About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

Some economists argue that mass deportations will have a shrill effect on the United States’ economy. The American Enterprise Institute estimates the nation’s GDP growth will be cut by 0.5%, which amounts to an over 30% drop.

Crumbling conditions

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

The economic impact of such a loss could be anywhere between 4.2-6.8% to the annual GDP, equivalent to US$1.1-1.7 trillion. Undocumented people pay taxes and contribute toward Social Security, and impacts to major sectors, such as agriculture, would face crumbling conditions.

Little data

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

Economists across the political spectrum have debated the argument on increased wages for low-skilled jobs, but little data exists to demonstrate that this effect would take place.

Approximately US$350 billion

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

According to the American Immigration Council, executing this plan as a one-time operation, of which several are proposed along Trump’s presidency, would total approximately US$350 billion between efforts required to conduct arrests, detain immigrants, begin the legal processing, and implement removals.

Camps

The Eisenhower model, Irreparable harm, Mass deportation, Forced to reconstruct lives, New Deal programs, Raids on workplaces, Entryways to uproot current policies, Additional plans, Third-country agreements, Likely a violation of law, Ending birthright, Ideological qualms, About a 30% drop in nation's GDP growth, Crumbling conditions, Little data, Approximately US0 billion

Where would the millions of detained be held? Trump also plans to build facilities, also referred to as camps, along the US-Mexico border to hold detainees there as they await processing and deportation. In addition to legal questions, this, too, would be a costly endeavor.

Post Related