We take a look ahead as Lightning approach NHL free agency
Lightning defenseman Ryan McDonagh, pictured in May, will enter the final year of his current deal next season. Both sides have made it clear they'd like him to play the rest of his career in Tampa Bay.
TAMPA — This time a year ago, general manager Julien BriseBois made no secret of how the Lightning needed to get better and where their offseason focus would be. They made sweeping changes in the days leading up to the opening of free agency, with a focus on improving defensively and at 5-on-5.
The early offseason reacquisition of defenseman Ryan McDonagh was the beginning, followed by a trade that sent defenseman Mikhail Sergachev to Utah for defenseman J.J. Moser and center prospect Conor Geekie. The deal also created cap room to trade for top-line winger Jake Guentzel’s rights and sign him to a seven-year deal.
All while allowing face-of-the-franchise Steven Stamkos to leave for Nashville.
As free agency opens Tuesday at noon, the path for BriseBois — who’s not afraid to swing for the fences — is unclear. Armed with some cap space and a bevy of long-term deals that will continue to grow in value as the cap number rises, he has more flexibility to do something big.
It seems unlikely fourth-line center Luke Glendening (11), shown during Game 2 of the first-round series against the Panthers in April, will be back with the Lightning.
“We’re going to do everything we can to have as strong a roster as possible,” BriseBois said during the Lightning’s end-of-season availability in May.
The Lightning are rebounding from three straight first-round playoff exits. They’ve been unseated as Florida’s hockey king by the Panthers, who won a second straight Stanley Cup. And while some might take solace in that a more favorable first-round matchup might have led to another deep playoff run, the goal under BriseBois at 401 Channelside Drive is not just to go far, but to lift another Cup.
Here’s what we can look forward to as July 1 approaches.
First, some housekeeping
The Lightning already have done a lot, inking unrestricted free-agent center Yanni Gourde to a six-year deal that will keep him in Tampa for the remainder of his career, and re-signing backup goaltender Jonas Johansson as well as important up-and-comers like defenseman Max Crozier and center Jack Finley. The pair of restricted free agents seemingly will compete for opening night roster spots in training camp but also have the flexibility of starting the season in the AHL because they are on two-way deals this season.
Forward Gage Golcalves, shown celebrating a goal during Game 5 of the first-round series against the Panthers in April, is the Lightning's only remaining restricted free agent.
The only remaining restricted free agent is forward Gage Goncalves, and no young player did more at the NHL level to raise his stock to the Lightning brass. The 24-year-old, who was fighting for ice time at midseason, now projects to be a middle-six forward. He’ll get a significant raise after carrying a mere $775,000 cap hit last season on a two-way deal. He doesn’t become an unrestricted free agent for another three years, so expect at least a two-year deal for Goncalves. The Lightning could go to arbitration with him, but they haven’t done that with an RFA since 2007.
In the front office, the Lightning have yet to name replacements for assistant GMs Mathieu Darche and Stacy Roest. BriseBois could shuffle the duties internally or name just one assistant GM. The departure of both around the same time allows BriseBois to reorganize the front office as he sees fit.
The UFAs
The Lightning have three remaining unrestricted free agents — center Luke Glendening, forward Cam Atkinson and defenseman Nick Perbix. Though BriseBois said in April he’d like to keep all three, it seems likely none will be back.
Glendening is 36 and has battled injuries. Zemgus Girgensons could slide into the fourth-line center spot if the Lightning don’t find a replacement in free agency. Atkinson was popular with teammates, but his hockey skills clearly regressed as he played in just 39 games after the Lightning tried to fit him into a variety of roles. Whatever you think of Perbix, he would command a raise (he carried a $1.25 million cap hit the past two seasons) the Lightning can’t pay a third-pairing defenseman. Plus, Crozier is waiting in the wings.
A Lightning organization that often was up against the cap now has some wiggle room entering free agency, but it’s not much. According to PuckPedia, the Lightning currently have $3.48 million in available space, but that’s with Conor Sheary and Geekie (who is on a two-way deal) on the NHL roster and Goncalves and Crozier not.
The rumors
Yes, we’ve heard Connor McDavid might want to play for the Lightning. But they have the fourth-least cap space of any team in the league. Tampa Bay has nearly half of his cap space this season — $46.15 million — invested in its top-six forward group of Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli and Oliver Bjorkstrand. So, to even start thinking about a McDavid trade begins with moving one of those players. Though the Sergachev trade showed BriseBois is willing to use a long-term contract as a trade asset and move a core player, it seems unlikely he’d move any of these given everything he’s done to build this core.
“We’re going to do everything we can to have as strong a roster as possible,” Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois said during the team's end-of-season availability in May.
Lightning coach Jon Cooper loves McDavid, and coaching him in the 4 Nations Faceoff only grew that. But The Lightning don’t need more offense. If the past two postseasons have taught them anything — as they taught McDavid’s Oilers — it’s that high-end skill can be neutralized in the playoffs. There’s already less time and space for offensive stars to operate, and when you play a team with a relentless, punishing style of play, it can take the best players out of the game. That’s not to say McDavid couldn’t give the Lightning a better shot at the Cup. But would the cost to acquire him make the Lightning less hard to play against in the postseason?
Extension talk
Speaking of keeping the core group intact, McDonagh will enter the final year of his current deal next season. Both sides have made it clear they’d like him to play the rest of his career in Tampa Bay. McDonagh turned 36 this month but is coming off a season in which he led all NHL players at plus-43 and was a major reason for the Lightning’s defensive improvement.
The sides can begin extension talks on Tuesday.
Two years ago, the Lightning decided not to engage Stamkos in such talks, which resulted in an awkward final year of the captain’s contract and an acrimonious split last offseason. At the same time, the Lightning signed defenseman Victor Hedman to a four-year extension worth an $8 million annual average value before going into the final season of his contract.
Every situation is different, but signs point to the Lightning approaching McDonagh about an extension this summer. It’s unclear how long he wants to play, so he might be in line for a long-term, low-AAV deal like the one Gourde signed. It’s important to note that not only does BriseBois love McDonagh and everything he brings to the team, but so does Cooper, and that matters in the Lightning organization.
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