Population Crisis: The 11 Countries Facing Demographic Collapse

Bulgaria's Vanishing Population

Bulgaria stands as one of the most dramatic examples of population decline in Europe, with Bulgaria's population is expected to decline by 20.6% from 6.8 million in 2024 to 5.4 million in 2050. The country's steep demographic slide is fueled by economic migration to wealthier European nations and persistently low birth rates.

The situation is particularly severe among young adults, who are leaving in droves seeking better opportunities elsewhere. From 2020 to 2050, the highest drop in population, 22.5%, will be recorded in Bulgaria, making it the country with the fastest declining population in the world.

This exodus is creating a vicious cycle where fewer young people remain to start families.

Latvia's Dramatic Demographic Shift

Latvia is expecting a 21.05% population loss between 2024 and 2050, continuing a trend that began after the Soviet Union's collapse. The country has experienced one of the most severe population declines in Europe, with This represents a 25.5% decline since the peak census figure, with only one of two nations worldwide falling below 1950 levels.

The crisis is particularly acute because Latvia has lost about one-fifth of its population since joining the European Union in May 2004. Latvia's population loss is caused by economic migration and low birth rates.

Young Latvians are emigrating in search of better economic prospects, leaving behind an aging population that struggles to maintain replacement-level birth rates.

Ukraine's War-Torn Demographics

Ukraine's population crisis has been dramatically accelerated by the ongoing war with Russia. Ukraine's population fell from 43.7 million in 2020 to 37.9 million in 2024, a sharp loss of 5.8 million people over only four years, largely due to the war with Russia, which precipitated not only casualties but a flood of refugees.

The conflict has turned what was already a challenging demographic situation into a full-blown catastrophe. According to the United Nations, over 6 million Ukrainians have left the country since the start of the war.

Additionally, the Wall Street Journal reports that the total population in Ukraine-controlled territory is now as low as 25 million. The combination of war casualties, mass emigration, and collapsed birth rates has created one of the most severe demographic crises in modern history.

Russia's Demographic Perfect Storm

Russia faces what demographers call a "perfect storm" of demographic decline. By the end of 2024, the natural decline of the Russian population amounted to 596.2 thousand people, according to published data from Rosstat.

Compared to the end of 2023, the indicator increased by 20.4% (from 495.3 thousand). The Ukraine war has significantly worsened an already critical situation.

The crisis is so severe that 2024 saw a record decline in Russia's population. A 3.5% increase in mortality combined with a drop in birth rates led to record demographic losses – there were 600,000 more deaths than births – a 20% increase on 2023.

The war has not only caused direct casualties but has also prompted mass emigration, with roughly 900,000 people have also left the country due to the war in Ukraine and mobilisation of reserves.

Japan's Aging Society Challenge

Japan represents the global archetype of an aging society facing sustained population decline. Japan's population is projected to lose 18.7 million people between 2024 and 2050.

The population is expected to shrink from 123.8 million to 105.1 million, a 15.1% decline. The country has been grappling with this demographic challenge for over a decade.

Japan's population has been falling since 2011 due to very low fertility rates (1.42 births per woman) and an aging population. The situation has reached a point where the birth rate has been falling since 1971, when it was 2.2, to 1.2 in 2023.

Overall, 727,277 babies were born in 2023 in Japan which is a decrease of 43,482 from the year before while, at the same time, 1,575,936 people passed away.

China's Population Peak and Decline

China has reached a historic demographic turning point, with China's population peaked at 1.42 billion in 2022 and began declining in 2023. China recorded more deaths than births for the first time in 2022 with a net decrease of 850,000 and this trend continued in 2023 when deaths overnumbered births by a margin of more than 1 million and in 2024 with deaths overnumbering births by 1.4 million.

This marks the end of centuries of population growth in the world's most populous nation. The long-term projections are staggering.

China, the country currently with the world's second-largest population, will likely experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054 (204 million), followed by Japan and the Russian Federation (21 and 10 million, respectively). Due to its large size and sustained low level of fertility, China is also likely to record the largest population decline of any country through the end of the century (786 million people).

Italy's Demographic Winter

Italy faces one of Europe's most severe demographic crises, earning the title of the continent's oldest country. Italy is the oldest country in Europe (the average age is 48.4 years) with some of the lowest birth rates (7.0 births per 1000 people) and fertility rates (1.2 children per woman) and a high age dependency rate (57.4%).

As of 2023, birth rates have declined by 34.2% since 2008, with 379 000 births and 661 000 deaths. The projections for Italy are particularly alarming.

Italy could see a 20% decline in its population by 2070 as a result of its severe natural decrease. The combination of ultra-low fertility rates and an aging population has created a demographic trap that appears increasingly difficult to escape, despite government efforts to encourage childbearing.

Lithuania's Post-Soviet Collapse

Lithuania exemplifies the demographic challenges facing post-Soviet states. When Lithuania split from the Soviet Union, it had a population of 3.7 million, which was close to its peak population.

The latest census recorded a population of 3.05 million in 2011, down from 3.4 million in 2001, further falling to 2,988,000 on September 1, 2012. The country has lost nearly a quarter of its population since independence.

Lithuania follows with a 22.1% projected decline for the same period through 2050. The exodus of young people seeking opportunities in Western Europe has left behind an aging population struggling to maintain basic demographic stability.

Like many Eastern European nations, Lithuania faces the double challenge of low birth rates and high emigration.

Moldova's Economic Exodus

Moldova has experienced one of the most dramatic population declines in Europe, with Moldova lost 1 million in population between 2020 and 2024, a drop of 25%. The country's population is projected to further decline by 20% from 2024 to 2050.

This small nation has been devastated by economic migration as citizens seek better lives elsewhere. The underlying causes are deeply rooted in economic desperation.

Poverty and corruption in Moldova have pushed the highly-skilled, young workers out of the country, and the aging population has been plagued by poor living standards and high mortality rates. This creates a vicious cycle where the departure of skilled workers further weakens the economy, encouraging more emigration.

South Korea's Fertility Crisis

South Korea has emerged as a stark example of extreme demographic decline, with fertility rates among the lowest in the world. South Korea offers a striking example of extreme low fertility rates.

The country's rapid economic development came at the cost of traditional family structures, leading to a birth rate crisis that threatens the nation's future. The situation has reached critical levels, with implications extending far beyond simple population numbers.

The country's ultra-low fertility rate, combined with rapid aging, creates economic challenges that will require fundamental changes to social and economic structures. Unlike other developed nations, South Korea's demographic decline is happening at an unprecedented speed.

Romania's Persistent Decline

Romania continues to struggle with sustained population loss despite joining the European Union. Romania's population is projected to decline by 15.8% from 2024 to 2050.

The population will be reduced from 19 million to 16 million over the next three decades. The pattern mirrors that of other Eastern European nations, with economic migration driving much of the decline.

Historical emigration patterns reveal the scale of the crisis. Between 2007 and 2015, about 3.5 million Romanians went abroad to escape poverty and widespread corruption.

This massive exodus of working-age population has left behind an aging society struggling to maintain economic viability and social cohesion.

The Global Implications

These demographic crises represent more than just statistical changes—they signal fundamental shifts in global economic and political power. The UN's 2024 projections ascribe an 80 per cent probability to global population peaking this century, from a 30 per cent estimate a decade ago.

The revision reflects broad-based errors in its forecasts, suggesting future data could be more favourable. However, for the countries in crisis, the immediate challenges are overwhelming.

The economic implications are staggering. The implications of population decline extend beyond numbers: shrinking populations can strain economies, reduce the labor force, and challenge social services, particularly in countries with aging demographics.

In a previous interview with Newsweek, a spokesperson for the Institute of Development Studies said that "In countries that will continue to experience high rates of population decline, the potential for economic stagnation and reduced innovation is elevated." As these eleven countries face their demographic destiny, the world watches a preview of what may become a global phenomenon. The challenge isn't just about numbers—it's about reimagining society itself.

Will these nations find innovative solutions, or will they become cautionary tales for the rest of the world? The answer may determine not just their own futures, but the shape of human civilization in the 21st century.

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