Is Moscow preparing for war with Finland?

Russia ramps up military activity on border with Finland

Russia ramps up military activity on border with Finland, What we know about the situation, Areas that have seen new activity, Preparing for a future conflict?, Finally joined NATO after the Ukraine invasion, Russia wasn’t happy with the decision, A country seen as unfriendly toward Russia, Putin promised weapon and troop deployments, The activity is Russia's delayed response, Logic dictates a conflict is coming, Looking at an adversarial nation, Comments made by a key official, Russia is building up its infrastructure, What we know about key changes, More worrying developments

Recent satellite imagery indicates a significant increase in Russia's military buildup along its border with Finland. Experts suggest that the enhancement of strategic bases may point to preparations for potential conflicts, as analyzed by military specialists.

What we know about the situation

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The Swedish news broadcaster SVT published images captured by the American Earth imaging company Planet Labs and reported that they showed activity at four critical locations along the Finish-Russian border. 

Areas that have seen new activity

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Kamenka on the Karelian Isthmus, Petrozavodsk, Severomorsk-2, and Olenya were all cited as areas with new military activity according to The Finnish Times, which reported that the activity could be long-promised reinforcement efforts threatened after Finland joined NATO. 

Preparing for a future conflict?

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Military analysts suggested that the activity could be Russian preparation for any future conflict with NATO. Finland had long been neutral when it came to its foreign policy issues but Helsinki opted to join NATO on April 6th, 2023, as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 

Finally joined NATO after the Ukraine invasion

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In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Finland, alongside its longtime neutral Nordic neighbor Sweden, decided to apply for NATO membership. The move upset the regional power balance and doubled the defensive alliance's border with Russia.

Russia wasn’t happy with the decision

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In April 2023, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said Finland’s accession to NATO was further "encroachment on our security and on Russia's national interests” according to Reuters. He also warned it was a dangerous move for Finland to make. 

A country seen as unfriendly toward Russia

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"There is absolutely no doubt that Finland is making problems for itself by joining (NATO) because we used to consider it a brotherly country,” stated Peskov. "But now we will consider it as a state that is unfriendly to us."

Putin promised weapon and troop deployments

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Following Finland's accession to NATO, Russia promised to enhance security on its border, including a statement from Vladimir Putin in March 2024 that saw the Russian President threaten to deploy both troops and weapons to its border with Finland, Ukrainska Pravda noted.  

The activity is Russia's delayed response

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Military analyst Emil Kastehelmi explained to SVT that “increasing activity” on Finland’s border with Russia was likely a delayed Russian response to Helsinki’s decision to join NATO. However, others have been far more concerned about what's happening near the Finnish border. 

Logic dictates a conflict is coming

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Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based defense think tank, explained to the Wall Street Journal that: “The logic of the last decade shows we’re expecting some conflict with NATO.”

Looking at an adversarial nation

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“When the troops are back [from the war in Ukraine], they will be looking over the border at a country they consider an adversary,” Pukhov told the news outlet. If the latest claim about Russia increasing its forces on its border proves true, Finland, and NATO, may be in trouble in the future. 

Comments made by a key official

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In mid-April, Lieutenant General Vesa Virtanen, the Deputy Chief of the Finnish Armed Forces, told the German news outlet Die Welt that Russia only had about 20,000 troops on its border with Finland in 2022 according to Newsweek. 

Photo Credit: Facebook @puolustus

Russia is building up its infrastructure

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"Now we see that Russia is building new infrastructure and bringing more troops to this region as soon as they can," Virtanen explained. “They are reorganizing themselves." However, it is unclear how many new Russian troops will be deployed to the border. 

What we know about key changes

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The Finnish Times noted that the Russian base at Petrozavodsk has seen three large storage halls built, which could hold up to 50 armored vehicles, while the Russian Arctic base of Severomorsk-2’s unused airstrip is being renovated. 

More worrying developments

Russia ramps up military activity on border with Finland, What we know about the situation, Areas that have seen new activity, Preparing for a future conflict?, Finally joined NATO after the Ukraine invasion, Russia wasn’t happy with the decision, A country seen as unfriendly toward Russia, Putin promised weapon and troop deployments, The activity is Russia's delayed response, Logic dictates a conflict is coming, Looking at an adversarial nation, Comments made by a key official, Russia is building up its infrastructure, What we know about key changes, More worrying developments

Satellite images show helicopters are now parked at Severomorsk-2 and shots of Russia’s Kamenka base show that 130 military tents have been put up since February 2025. The area was previously undeveloped but now can house 2,000 troops. 

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