Farage and Corbyn likely biggest winners of votes for 16 and 17-year-olds

Nigel Farage is to step up efforts to win over young people after the Government gave the go-ahead for 16 and 17-year-olds to have the vote. It comes as pollsters predict that Reform UK as well as Jeremy Corbyn and the Greens could be the big winners from the most significant change in the UK’s democracy rules in nearly 60 years. Reform UK, which has 4.4 million likes on TikTok, has already put time and resources into campaigns and membership drives on social media but the party is expected to go further in its appeals to Gen Z and Gen Alpha, a source said – those born since 1997 and 2013. The Reform leader told The i Paper: “We have been working on this for some time. We want to give young people hope.” (Photo: Getty)

‘Seismic’ change

Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner announced on Thursday that the Government would fulfil Labour’s manifesto pledge to lower the voting age from 18 to 16 across the UK. It means that around 1.5 million 16 and 17-year-olds will be eligible to vote at the next election, expected in 2029. The change, described by the Government as “seismic”, is the biggest since the age was lowered from 21 to 18 in 1969. The move is likely to benefit Labour, which traditionally is more popular among younger people, and disadvantage the Conservatives, whose demographic base lies in older age groups. (Photo: Thomas Krych/Anadolu via Getty)

Change could ‘backfire’ on Labour

Yet one polling expert warned that lowering the voting age could “backfire spectacularly” for Sir Keir Starmer because parties on the fringes, such as Reform and the new left-wing party being proposed by Jeremy Corbyn, could scoop up votes from teenagers. Farage said the move was an attempt by Labour “to rig the political system – but we intend to give them a nasty surprise”. Chris Hopkins, political research director of pollsters Savanta, told The i Paper: “Obviously Labour are sensing some electoral benefit from this, and I guess we have to wonder if there will be policies targeted at this age group that are still to come, potentially along the lines of tuition fees or something similar. But this is a pretty risky strategy. We see the whole electorate being more electorally promiscuous than ever, and I think young people are particularly electorally promiscuous and to believe that young people are now a block vote for the Labour party is just not true. We do see younger people, increasingly young men, having an affinity with Nigel Farage and the more populist right, and I think that young people perhaps more to the left of the political spectrum are less bothered about the Labour Party, particularly with them being in government.” Hopkins said given that 16 and 17-year-olds represented a small proportion of the overall electorate the impact at the election would be “probably pretty minimal”. (Photo: Gareth Fuller/PA)

Corbyn ‘viewed most positively’ by young voters

But Hopkins added: “I can’t help but think that this really does have the potential to backfire reasonably spectacularly. And while the Labour Party will consider the Conservatives their main opponents and they’re more likely to benefit than the Conservative Party, I think it could end up being parties on the fringes that scupper or put a cap on how much the Labour Party will benefit from this.” Polling of 500 16 and 17-year-olds by Merlin Strategy, first published by ITV News, showed that 49 per cent of this cohort are against lowering the age compared to 51 per cent in favour. Scarlett Maguire, pollster and founder of Merlin Strategy, told The i Paper: “Half of those surveyed said they should not be given the vote and less than one in five say they would definitely vote if there was an election tomorrow.” Among the age group Labour are leading, Reform are second and Greens are third most popular, Maguire said. “However, Jeremy Corbyn is the politician they view most positively, and he has more appeal with this group than Keir Starmer,” she said. “Younger people seem apathetic towards politics, but if politicians do want to engage this group they will need to up their digital and social media skills as this group is more likely to get their news from TikTok than anywhere else.” (Photo: Leon Neal/Getty)

Greens could also pick up votes

Analysis by More in Common shows that younger voters are more likely to vote for Labour and the Greens than the country as a whole – and there is a sizeable gender gap in votes between Gen Z men, who back Labour and Reform more, and Gen Z women, who are much more likely to back the Greens. Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, said: “Given young voters tend to lean to the left, we should expect the Greens and Labour to be the bigger winners of extending the vote to 16 and 17 year olds, with Reform doing well among young men, and the Tories the big losers. But 16-17 year old voters would only make up a small proportion of the electorate, so are unlikely to shift the dial politically at a national level. That said, in a fragmented political landscape, even small changes can have big effects locally.” (Photo: Cameron Smith/Getty)

A Corbyn-led party leading with Gen Z

Tryl said that in More in Common’s hypothetical polling, a Corbyn-led party is in the lead with Gen Z on 29 per cent, ahead of Labour on 27 per cent – but he performs much worse with every other generation. More in Common’s analysis, however, said taking away votes from Labour could let Reform in in certain seats. “There might not be enough young voters in many constituencies to convert this (Corbyn’s popularity) into actual seats – however, this party could take away potential votes from Labour and make it easier for other parties to do well, particularly in Labour’s marginal seats with Reform UK,” it says. (Photo: AP/Matt Dunham)

'Major constitutional changes without consultation'

Rayner said Labour was “taking action to break down barriers to participation that will ensure more people have the opportunity to engage in UK democracy”. But the Conservatives described the decision as a “brazen attempt by the Labour Party whose unpopularity is scaring them into making major constitutional changes without consultation”. The Government also expanded the range of acceptable voter IDs to UK-issued bank cards that show the voter’s name, and will extend the deadline for applying for a postal vote from 11 to 14 working days before election day. Ministers have also changed rules governing party donations to tackle foreign interference, including checks on contributions over £500 from unincorporated associations and closing loopholes used by shell companies. (Photo: Suzanne Plunkett/Reuters)