If peace negotiations fail, is Ukraine destined to lose the war?

Is there hope for Ukraine if the war goes on?

The conflict in Ukraine has escalated to a critical phase with the ongoing Russian invasion. Although U.S. President Donald Trump is keen on brokering peace, there has been no indication from Russia that it is ready to cease hostilities. This situation raises pressing questions about the future security and sovereignty of Ukraine.

Losing isn’t inevitable

Is the end of the war near?

The end of the fighting could be close at hand if the Trump administration can find a way to bring Moscow around towards peace. However, if that doesn’t happen. Ukraine is still in a fairly good position according to the US general who knows the most about the conflict. 

General Christopher Cavoli

On April 8th, General Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, gave testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee and revealed that the Ukrainians were in a good position despite what many might think about the war. 

A clear assessment

The Bulwark reported that General Cavoli’s message was clear—Ukraine was fighting the war with what the news outlet paraphrased as “incredible resolve" while Russia was not adapting fast enough despite being at war with its neighbor for over three years. 

Debunking current views

General Cavoli’s testimony debunked views of the war being spread by the Trump administration, but he also revealed that Kyiv was uniquely reliant on the United States for its all-too-important anit-aircraft systems.

Ukraine’s problems

Whether or not Ukraine was running out of ammunition in general wasn’t a point Cavoli was clear about in his testimony, though he did seem to suggest that Ukraine's artillery ammunition demand still exceeded its supply and added delays in US assistance would hurt Ukraine's ability to fight.  

Russia’s advantages

General Cavoli also noted that Russia has major advantages. “Despite extensive battlefield losses in Ukraine, the Russian military is reconstituting and growing at a faster rate than most analysts had anticipated,” he explained about the nature of Moscow’s military. 

Drones and artillery shells

A significant amount of drones and artillery shells are being produced and sourced from abroad, and while the Russian Armed Forces have been battered, Cavoli said that they have not been broken. This is an important point considering Russia’s likely losses. 

Russian losses are large

On April 8th, the day General Cavoli gave his testimony, the Ukrainian General Staff estimated that Russian war losses had reached 926,310. As of April 21st, Russia’s losses had jumped to 941,770. The Kremlin is also facing several economic and frontline problems. 

Problems facing Moscow

According to General Cavoli, high inflation, high interest rates, and a major dependence on war production are all issues for Moscow, while on the frontline, Ukrainian forces are in “very strong defensive positions—positions well dug-in," Cavoli said. 

Ukraine's manpower problem

Ukraine has solved its manpower problems and evolved quickly based on General Cavoli’s assessment. He also pointed out that since Russian gains had been measured in meters not miles since the initial stages of the war. 

Ukraine isn’t doomed to lose

However, the most important statement General Cavoli made during his testimony was that in spite of the challenges Ukraine faced, it was not doomed to be defeated by Russia when he was asked about whether or not Ukraine was destined to lose the conflict. 

Nothing is inevitable in war

“There’s nothing inevitable in war, and the Ukrainians are in very strong defensive positions right now, and are improving weekly, their ability to generate force and to reinforce those positions,” General Cavoli explained. 

Hard to envision Ukraine collapsing

“It is hard sitting here right now to envision a major Ukrainian offensive that clears everybody you know out of every square inch of Ukraine,” Cavoli continued. "But likewise, it’s very hard to envision Ukraine collapsing and losing that conflict. I do not think there is inevitability to a Ukrainian loss.”

Russia is a chronic threat

General Cavoli went on to say the war against Ukraine revealed Russia to be a “chronic threat”, one that was growing and “willing to use military force to achieve its geopolitical goals.” However, it was unclear if the Trump administration would heed his warning.