Seismologists use AI to predict the next earthquake

Seismologists turn to AI to predict the next major earthquake

Earthquakes, once rare and unpredictable, are becoming increasingly frequent and severe. Scientists have been racing to develop tools to predict these natural disasters, but with limited success. Now, artificial intelligence is offering a glimmer of hope. By analyzing vast amounts of data, AI is helping scientists identify patterns that could signal an impending quake.

But can this technology finally provide the answers we've been seeking? Click on to find out.

Predicting earthquakes

Geologists have been attempting to use modern scientific methods to predict earthquakes since at least the 1960s, but with little success.

Impossible task?

Many scientists have long considered earthquake forecasting to be impossible—or, at best, they have approached it with extremely tempered optimism.

Earth's puzzle

Chris Marone, a professor of geosciences at Penn State University in Pennsylvania, explains that one factor hindering earthquake prediction is the complexity of the fault systems that crisscross the globe.

Underground menace

However, faults are not always easily identifiable. Most are underground and are difficult to discover.

Ideal scenario

According to the United States Geological Survey, a truly useful earthquake prediction requires three elements: location, timing, and magnitude. So far, they say, no one can predict these with certainty.

Not enough

While these maps can aid in planning, such as improving building standards in high-risk areas, they don't offer the precision needed for early warnings that would allow people to evacuate or take shelter.

AI to the rescue

Enter artificial intelligence. Several seismologists (researchers studying earthquakes) are applying this technology in the hope of filling the earthquake prediction gap.

Benefits

AI programs can process multiple seismic records simultaneously, rendering them with high precision in 3D, faster than any human could.

Experiment

Ross and his team took seismic waveforms from across Southern California that human scientists had identified as genuine quakes.

How it works

Now, they're using a computer program to listen to the Earth's constant hum. This program is searching for any new "songs" that match the ones in their library. If it finds a match, it could be a sign of an impending earthquake.

Drawback

This program, a precursor to fully-fledged AI software, could only identify earthquakes in the seismic record that matched its training data. Meaning new seismic events were overlooked.

Promising findings

These programs quickly identified many unfamiliar-sounding quakes, which were later confirmed by human scientists.

Current use

They have already been deployed all over California, where they've identified a new type of long-lasting, slow-moving earthquake swarm.

Superhuman warning system

As these programs continue to develop, they could be used to improve the speed and accuracy of earthquake early warning systems. "This is light-years beyond what we could have done a few years ago," says Ross. "It's at superhuman levels now."

Looking promising

In September 2023, researchers at the University of Texas also made progress in earthquake prediction. An AI algorithm correctly predicted 70% of earthquakes a week in advance in a trial in China.