Who could be the next Pope and how will they be chosen?

Cardinals from across the globe have descended on the Vatican City to fill a power vacuum left by the death of Pope Francis.

The 88-year-old Pontiff died on Monday 21 April after suffering a stroke and then heart failure, just a day after his last public appearance on Easter Sunday.

His body has been lying-in-state at St Peter’s Basilica since Wednesday and queues have snaked across St Peter’s Square as more than 150,000 people have waited patiently to pay their respects.

At the same time, around 149 of the world’s 252 cardinals have arrived at the Vatican ahead of Saturday’s funeral and are said to be convening on a daily basis to discuss logistical matters in a “general congregation” while the Catholic church remains without a leader.

A new pope is chosen by a papal conclave

But conversations about papal succession have been going on for some time within the Catholic Church hierarchy before this week’s tragic events, according to Vatican experts.

Power changes hands only when the Pope dies or resigns. It is the duty of the dean of the College of Cardinals – currently held by 91-year-old Italian Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re – to organise a conclave to elect a successor.

Contenders do not put themselves forward formally during a conclave and open campaigning for the role is strictly forbidden.

90 cardinals must agree in conclave for a new pope to be elected

But as depicted in the recent film Conclave, different factions – typically the liberal and traditionalist wings of the Church – lobby to have their favourite elected at a series of behind-closed doors meetings.

The highly-political jostling usually takes place among contenders’ supporters over several days, before the white smoke emerges from the Sistine Chapel to signal a new Pope has been chosen.

The i Paper has taken a closer look at some of Pope Francis’s most likely successors and the process by which one will be chosen.

Who could be the next Pope?

Cardinal Pietro Parolin 

Cardinal Pietro Parolin is the Vatican’s Secretary of State (Photo: Tiziana Fabi / AFP/Getty)

The 70-year-old Italian is the current Secretary of State at the Vatican, a highly political role which has seen him take the lead on delicate diplomatic issues for the Catholic Church.

In effect, he has acted as a deputy pope and is likely to be seen as a frontrunner in succession.

The Italian is viewed as neither a liberal nor a traditionalist and his years working so closely alongside Pope Francis allow him to be viewed as someone offering continuity.

Parolin was credited with helping re-establish formal ties between the US and Cuba. He recently criticised Donald Trump’s claim the US could “take over” Gaza, saying there could be “no deportation” of Palestinians.

And he has spoken out against the legalisation of same-sex marriage around the world.

Luis Antonio Tagle

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle would be the first pontiff from Asia (Photo: Franco Origlia/Getty)

The 67-year-old Filipino could be the very first pontiff from Asia and is seen as someone to take forwards some of the liberal views shared by Pope Francis.

He is considered a moderate within the Catholic Church and, like Pope Francis, has demonstrated dedication to social issues and the plight of migrants.

Tagle could win support from more progressive cardinals, having criticised the “harsh” approach taken historically by the Church towards the LGBT community and divorced people.

But he remains opposed to abortion rights and has also spoken against euthanasia.

Cardinal Robert Sarah

Cardinal Robert Sarah is known to be a traditionalist (Photo:Jun Sato/Getty)

The 79-year-old Guinean is a conservative traditionalist who has previously criticised some of Pope Francis’s reforms to ease the formality of Catholic liturgies.

The son of a fruit picker, he rose to the rank of archbishop at the age of just 34 and eventually became head of the Vatican’s office overseeing the Catholic Church’s liturgical rites until his retirement in 2021.

A strong opponent of same-sex marriage, Sarah has claimed liberal “radicalisation” has taken hold in the Western world through abortion, homosexual union and gender theory.

He may not be the frontrunner but is likely to be popular with conservative element of the conclave.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu is from the Democratic Republic of Congo (Photo: Tiziana Fabi / AFP/Getty)

The 65-year-old from the Democratic Republic of the Congo is another African contender who may win strong support from traditionalists.

Archbishop of Kinshasa for seven years, he was appointed cardinal by Pope Francis and is seen as a strong advocate for the Church in a nation where Christians have faced persecution.

Since his appointment, he has spoken out against Pope Francis’s Fiducia supplicans – a 2023 declaration which allowed priests to bless same-sex couples.

He described it as “a kind of Western imperialism” and stated that  “unions of persons of the same sex are considered contradictory to cultural norms and intrinsically evil”.

Cardinal Raymond Burke

Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke is the former Archbishop of St Louis in the US (Photo: Franco Origlia/Getty)

The 76-year-old traditionalist is the most prominent American in the list of possible successors.

Often described as an “ultra-conservative”, Burke has been critical of reforms made under Pope Francis and is reported to have clashed with the late Pontiff over his “woke” agenda.

He has also said politicians who support abortion, including then US president Joe Biden, were supporting something “intrinsically evil” and should not receive Holy Communion.

Although a high profile figure among the conservative, he is not deemed the strongest contender for the role.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi

Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi was Pope Francis’ Ukraine peace envoy (Photo: Olesya Kurpyayeva/ AFP/Getty)

The 69-year-old Italian is another contender to be the next Pope, perceived as a firm supporter of Francis’s liberal stances.

Born and raised in Rome, he was appointed Archbishop of Bologna in 2015 and is seen as being in the leftist political wing of the Church.

He was chosen by Francis to lead a peace mission aimed at helping end the Russian invasion in Ukraine.

And although Zuppi has made supportive statements about “our LGBT brothers and sisters”, a recent mass given for traditional Catholics was viewed as an attempt to win favour with conservatives.

How the next Pope is selected

It is members of the College for Cardinals – a select group of over 200 senior cardinals chosen by successive Popes – who decide on Francis’s successor through a conclave.

They meet behind closed doors in the Sistine Chapel, participants are sworn to secrecy and are sealed off from the outside world.

The process begins with a mass, then there will be prayers, speeches and reflection before a long series of secret ballots inside the Sistine Chapel overseen by three cardinals selected as “scrutineers”.

The next Pope is only chosen when a single candidate gets a two-thirds majority of the votes, in other words the support of at least 90 cardinals.

The conclave is not expected to start until sometime after Tuesday 6 May and before Sunday 11 May.

The colour of smoke from the chimney indicates if a pope has been chosen or not

In centuries gone by, it could take months for a conclave to conclude, even years. But in recent decades the choice has been made within several days.

Only men can become a pope. There is no age limit when it comes to the role.

However, Pope Paul VI banned anyone over the age of 80 from voting, so only 138 of the cardinals will get to vote during the process.

Around 110 of the current electors were created by Francis, as he sought to rebalance the College for Cardinals away from its traditional European dominance. It may give an advantage to leading contenders from Latin America and other continents.

Ballot papers after each round of voting are burned in a small, controlled fire inside the chapel.

Black smoke billowing from the chimney informs those outside that a new Pope has still not been selected.

White smoke, created by an additive in the fire, tells the world a new Pope has been chosen.

The pope is introduced to the world with the phrase “Habemus papam”

Once a new pope has been chosen, he must select a papal name.

Then he will don the white robes and red slippers and be given the Fisherman’s ring before appearing before the crowds on the main balcony of St Peter’s Basilica.

Waiting crowds will be told “Habemus papam!”, meaning “We have a pope!”.

Then he will give his first blessing as the new pope.