Experts fear India and Pakistan fragile ceasefire won’t hold

Inevitable return to hostilities?

Inevitable return to hostilities?, “Ceasefire simply a pause”, says Modi, Conflict with India boost Pakistan’s military image, Hyper-nationalist rhetoric, Military confrontation, Attacks on Hindu tourists, India blamed Pakistan, Suspension of water treaty, 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and hydroelectric energy, Indian sanctions on Pakistan, Pakistan’s response, The importance of the Simla Agreement, Peace seems unlikely

While India and Pakistan have stuck to the ceasefire following the almost-war between them a couple of weeks ago, experts fear that a return to hostilities is inevitable.

“Ceasefire simply a pause”, says Modi

Inevitable return to hostilities?, “Ceasefire simply a pause”, says Modi, Conflict with India boost Pakistan’s military image, Hyper-nationalist rhetoric, Military confrontation, Attacks on Hindu tourists, India blamed Pakistan, Suspension of water treaty, 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and hydroelectric energy, Indian sanctions on Pakistan, Pakistan’s response, The importance of the Simla Agreement, Peace seems unlikely

In a speech last week, India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, insisted that the military offensive against Pakistani terror groups, named Operation Sindhoor, was still continuing and that the ceasefire was simply a pause, per The Guardian.

Conflict with India boost Pakistan’s military image

Inevitable return to hostilities?, “Ceasefire simply a pause”, says Modi, Conflict with India boost Pakistan’s military image, Hyper-nationalist rhetoric, Military confrontation, Attacks on Hindu tourists, India blamed Pakistan, Suspension of water treaty, 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and hydroelectric energy, Indian sanctions on Pakistan, Pakistan’s response, The importance of the Simla Agreement, Peace seems unlikely

On the other hand, the conflict with India helped boost Pakistan’s army domestic image, with an 82% approval rating, according to an Al Jazeera survey, after having gone through a period of reputational decline.

Hyper-nationalist rhetoric

Inevitable return to hostilities?, “Ceasefire simply a pause”, says Modi, Conflict with India boost Pakistan’s military image, Hyper-nationalist rhetoric, Military confrontation, Attacks on Hindu tourists, India blamed Pakistan, Suspension of water treaty, 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and hydroelectric energy, Indian sanctions on Pakistan, Pakistan’s response, The importance of the Simla Agreement, Peace seems unlikely

“With the hyper-nationalist rhetoric we are still seeing from both sides, it seems like there’s limited space for any lasting rapprochement,”Chietigj Bajpaee, a senior research fellow for south Asia at the Chatham House thinktank, told The Guardian.

Military confrontation

Inevitable return to hostilities?, “Ceasefire simply a pause”, says Modi, Conflict with India boost Pakistan’s military image, Hyper-nationalist rhetoric, Military confrontation, Attacks on Hindu tourists, India blamed Pakistan, Suspension of water treaty, 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and hydroelectric energy, Indian sanctions on Pakistan, Pakistan’s response, The importance of the Simla Agreement, Peace seems unlikely

Two weeks ago, on May 7th, India launched missile strikes on nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir while Pakistan shot down five Indian fighter jets, the BBC reported.

Attacks on Hindu tourists

Inevitable return to hostilities?, “Ceasefire simply a pause”, says Modi, Conflict with India boost Pakistan’s military image, Hyper-nationalist rhetoric, Military confrontation, Attacks on Hindu tourists, India blamed Pakistan, Suspension of water treaty, 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and hydroelectric energy, Indian sanctions on Pakistan, Pakistan’s response, The importance of the Simla Agreement, Peace seems unlikely
The attack was triggered by the killing of 26 people (mostly Hindu tourists) in India-administered Kashmir by a group of gunmen on April 22.

India blamed Pakistan

Inevitable return to hostilities?, “Ceasefire simply a pause”, says Modi, Conflict with India boost Pakistan’s military image, Hyper-nationalist rhetoric, Military confrontation, Attacks on Hindu tourists, India blamed Pakistan, Suspension of water treaty, 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and hydroelectric energy, Indian sanctions on Pakistan, Pakistan’s response, The importance of the Simla Agreement, Peace seems unlikely

India was quick to blame Pakistan, which it has long accused of harboring militant groups, but Pakistan denied any involvement, CNN reported.

Suspension of water treaty

Inevitable return to hostilities?, “Ceasefire simply a pause”, says Modi, Conflict with India boost Pakistan’s military image, Hyper-nationalist rhetoric, Military confrontation, Attacks on Hindu tourists, India blamed Pakistan, Suspension of water treaty, 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and hydroelectric energy, Indian sanctions on Pakistan, Pakistan’s response, The importance of the Simla Agreement, Peace seems unlikely

In response, India announced the suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, citing Pakistan's alleged support for cross-border terrorism. The treaty remains suspended despite the ceasefire.

80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and hydroelectric energy

Inevitable return to hostilities?, “Ceasefire simply a pause”, says Modi, Conflict with India boost Pakistan’s military image, Hyper-nationalist rhetoric, Military confrontation, Attacks on Hindu tourists, India blamed Pakistan, Suspension of water treaty, 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and hydroelectric energy, Indian sanctions on Pakistan, Pakistan’s response, The importance of the Simla Agreement, Peace seems unlikely
The move is significant, as the Indus River system supports approximately 80% of Pakistan's agriculture and hydroelectric energy, per Reuters.

Indian sanctions on Pakistan

Inevitable return to hostilities?, “Ceasefire simply a pause”, says Modi, Conflict with India boost Pakistan’s military image, Hyper-nationalist rhetoric, Military confrontation, Attacks on Hindu tourists, India blamed Pakistan, Suspension of water treaty, 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and hydroelectric energy, Indian sanctions on Pakistan, Pakistan’s response, The importance of the Simla Agreement, Peace seems unlikely
India also imposed a travel ban on Pakistani nationals, expelled Pakistani diplomats, halted overland trade and closed its air space for Pakistani aircrafts, all measures that are still in place despite the ceasefire, according to The Times of India.

Pakistan’s response

Inevitable return to hostilities?, “Ceasefire simply a pause”, says Modi, Conflict with India boost Pakistan’s military image, Hyper-nationalist rhetoric, Military confrontation, Attacks on Hindu tourists, India blamed Pakistan, Suspension of water treaty, 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and hydroelectric energy, Indian sanctions on Pakistan, Pakistan’s response, The importance of the Simla Agreement, Peace seems unlikely
Pakistan responded with similar measures, also closing its airspace to Indian aircrafts, halting trade, expelling diplomats and even suspending its participation in all bilateral agreements with India, including the Simla agreement.

The importance of the Simla Agreement

Inevitable return to hostilities?, “Ceasefire simply a pause”, says Modi, Conflict with India boost Pakistan’s military image, Hyper-nationalist rhetoric, Military confrontation, Attacks on Hindu tourists, India blamed Pakistan, Suspension of water treaty, 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and hydroelectric energy, Indian sanctions on Pakistan, Pakistan’s response, The importance of the Simla Agreement, Peace seems unlikely

Signed in 1972, the Simla Agreement forms the bedrock of India-Pakistan relations, outlining commitments to resolve disputes peacefully and delimiting the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border that separates Indian-administered from Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

Peace seems unlikely

Inevitable return to hostilities?, “Ceasefire simply a pause”, says Modi, Conflict with India boost Pakistan’s military image, Hyper-nationalist rhetoric, Military confrontation, Attacks on Hindu tourists, India blamed Pakistan, Suspension of water treaty, 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and hydroelectric energy, Indian sanctions on Pakistan, Pakistan’s response, The importance of the Simla Agreement, Peace seems unlikely

“It seems very unlikely that we’re going to see any sort of credible peace process,” an expert in the region told The Guardian.

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