What I’m hearing as Guardians ‘tread water’ — Terry Pluto

Nolan Jones has only six homers in his last 475 plate appearances dating back to opening day of 2024.

CLEVELAND, Ohio — What I’m hearing about the Guardians:

1. Here’s a look at how the Guardians view this season. As the team headed into the weekend, the Guardians were 35-33. At the same point in 2024, they were 44-24. It’s a huge difference. They roared to a fast start in 2024 much like the Tigers (46-25) have done this season.

2. In their next 68 games after the fast 2024 start, the Guardians were 33-35. In other words, it was a so-so performance. In early August, their lead was down to 2 1/2 games in the Central Division. They ended up winning the Central by 6 1/2 games.

3. As for this season, the Guardians were expecting a slower start than a year ago — more like the type of starts they had in the Terry Francona Era. Francona’s teams invariably were better after the All-Star break. Part of the reason was reinforcements from the minors. Sometimes, trades helped. The first half of the season helped Francona and the front office sort through the young players.

Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Luis Ortiz had a terrible first start of the season. Since then, his ERA is 3.60.

4. A year ago, the Guardians added Lane Thomas via a trade to help in the outfield. Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb joined the rotation. Cobb was so-so and continued to be bothered by injuries. Coming off Tommy John elbow surgery, Boyd had a 2.72 ERA in eight starts for Cleveland. He’s now with the Cubs, where he has a 5-3 record and a 2.89 ERA.

5. This season, the Guardians are upbeat about the return of Shane Bieber from Tommy John elbow surgery at some point this season. Reliever Trevor Stephan (Tommy John surgery) is starting to pitch in games at the Goodyear training complex. Reliever Erik Sabrowski is starting to pitch in the minors after having arm problems in spring training.

6. With all the arm injuries, it’s as if MLB teams have two pitching staffs — one active in the big leagues and the other coming off various forms of surgery. The Guardians signed John Means, who has had two Tommy John surgeries. He is throwing in Goodyear and it’s possible he could be back in August, but that’s very tentative.

Stephen Vogt has said the Guardians are still searching for their identity as a team.

7. The current rotation has promise, The Guardians are upbeat about the next few months because the starting pitching has improved. A year ago, the starters had a 4.40 ERA. This season, it’s 4.09. The current rotation has five starters who are 27 or younger. Luis Ortiz had a dismal first start, and his ERA is 3.60 since then. Slade Cecconi (1-3, 4.26 ERA) has shown promise. Both right-handers were acquired in trades.

8. Why did the Guardians win 92 games last season? Because their bullpen had a 2.57 ERA, the fourth lowest in the majors since 2000. They blew the fewest leads in the majors. The bullpen was a powerhouse force driving the team all season to remain on top of the Central Division.

9. The bullpen this season has a 3.61 ERA, ranking 12th. In the month of June, the relievers’ ERA is 1.15. Emmanuel Clase has found his dominating groove. Cade Smith and others are pitching well. That trend needs to continue.

10. The other factor in 2024 was team defense. According to the Fielding Bible, the Guardians ranked No. 2 in defense in 2024. They are No. 15 this season. The formula for winning in 2024 was a bullpen for the ages combined with superb defense. That hasn’t emerged this season.

11. Guardians manager Stephen Vogt has mentioned several times that his team is searching for an identity. The most recent was June 10: “We see flashes of us being a really good team. We’re just not winning games. I don’t think we’re playing bad baseball. I just think we’re not reaching our full potential … We’re still trying to find our identity, offensively. We haven’t really caught fire and gone. It’s kind of been treading water.”

12. The Guardians ranked 14th in runs scored in 2024 compared to 23rd this season.

13. Can the Guardians improve over the next few months? The team believes the starting pitching and relievers will be good or even better than that. They need to find a way to score more runs. They have two stars in the lineup: Jose Ramirez (.331, .938 OPS) and Steven Kwan (.305, 790 OPS). Having solid years are Carlos Santana (.251, .738 OPS) and Daniel Schneemann (.246, .775 OPS). That’s about it.

14. For a bit of context, according to Baseball Reference, the average MLB player this season is batting .245 with a .712 OPS.

15. Kyle Manzardo (.206, .718 OPS) has 11 HR and 31 RBI. In his first 30 games of the season, he hit eight HR with 20 RBI. In the last 30, it’s three HR and 11 RBI.

16. There are internal stats about how Nolan Jones (.208, .592 OPS) has a “hard hit rate” among the highest on the team. That may be so, but Jones has hit only six HR in his last 475 plate appearances dating back to opening day of 2024. The Guardians were hoping Jones could regain his 2023 form when he batted .297 (.931 OPS) with 20 HR in 424 plate appearances for Colorado.

17. Some fans want Chase DeLauter to be promoted. He’s coming off sports hernia surgery. He has played only 56 career games above the Class A level. The team’s first-round pick in 2022, DeLauter is batting .250 (.796 OPS) in Class AAA Columbus this season. They are not going to rush him.

18. The other outfield prospect at Class AAA is C.J Kayfus, a 23-year-old who played primarily first base until this season. Kayfus has made progress learning to play right and left field at Columbus, while also hitting .307 (.917 OPS) with six HR in 154 plate appearances.

19. Those Class AAA stats can be very deceiving. Guardians fans remember how Jhonkensy Noel and Will Wilson struggled in Cleveland. When they recently went back to Columbus, they hit two homers each in the first games back with the Clippers. Some scouts insist the gap between Class AAA and the majors is wider than ever, especially for hitters.

20. Guardians fans know how right field has been a miserable situation, the combined batting average of those playing the position is .179 (.503 OPS). That ranks dead last in the majors. But center field also has been a problem, the combined stats are .221 (.577 OPS). Even more disturbing, the Fielding Bible ranks center field as Cleveland’s worst defensive position in 2025. The Guardians hope with Thomas finally healthy (foot injury) and showing signs of hitting, he can take over in center as he did a year ago.

21. The identity issue is real. The Guardians rank 16th in ERA (3.89) compared to third a year ago. Their bullpen is 12th compared to No. 1 a year. They are 23rd in scoring runs compared to 14th a year ago. Finally, they are 15th in team defense compared to No. 2 a year ago, according to the Fielding Bible. Cleveland has lost 7 of its last 10 games. “Treading water” is right, yet they are only 1/2 a game out of the final wild card playoff spot.

Hear me talk:

I’ll be at the Avon Lake Library on June 25 at 6:30 p.m. It’s free. I’ll take questions, meet fans and sign books.

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