The Guadalupe River in Texas surged 26 feet in just 45 minutes. It caught everyone off guard
With at least 105 dead and two dozen still missing, Friday’s catastrophic flash flooding in Central Texas ranks among the worst natural disasters in the state’s history.
The brunt of the disaster centered in Kerr County, where the torrential rainfall caused the Guadalupe River to burst its banks, taking 84 victims, including 28 children.
Among those killed were 27 young girls and staff members at Camp Mystic, an all-girls Christian summer camp situated on the riverbank. Eleven were still missing on Tuesday morning.
The National Weather Service predicted between one and three inches of rain, with some isolated spots possibly getting five to seven inches. Instead, parts of Kerr County were slammed with 10 to 15 inches, and in some places, over 20 inches, within a few hours.
Camper's belongings sit outside one of Camp Mystic's cabins near the Guadalupe River (AP)
The storm is believed to be fueled by warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and leftovers from Tropical Storm Barry, according to San Antonio Express-News meteorologist Anthony Franze.
These combined to create a slow-moving weather system that slowed over the area and dumped heavy rain over hills and valleys.
The geography of Hill Country made things worse. The steep hills and rocky land don’t absorb water well, so rain quickly flows into creeks and rivers.
This caused the Guadalupe River to rise rapidly to its second-highest level ever recorded, even higher than a historic 1987 flood, Franze said.
A drone view shows an area flooded by the swollen San Gabriel river, in Georgetown, Texas (Reuters)
The area is often called “Flash Flood Alley” because it’s prone to these kinds of fast, dangerous floods, Hatim Sharif, a hydrologist and civil engineer at the University of Texas at San Antonio, said in an article for The Conversation.
Experts say predicting exactly where and how much rain will fall is difficult, and this storm caught many off guard. Dr. Jess Neumann of the University of Reading said this was a “tragic reminder of the dangers of sudden extreme rainfall and flash flooding.”
“This terrible event, in which children are missing and many have died, raises critical questions about effective early warning systems, flood planning and preparedness in the region,” Neumann said in a news release.
“It cannot be right that a flood of this magnitude, in an area known to be at high risk of flash floods, caused such devastation and has taken so many people by surprise.”
A flood gauge marks the height of water flowing over a farm-to-market road near Kerrville, Texas, on July 4. (AP)
The flood struck in the middle of the night when most people were asleep. There weren’t strong warning systems in place to alert residents or campers in time to escape.
“We didn't know this flood was coming,” Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said Friday. “No one knew this kind of flood was coming.”
Chuck Schumer, the Senate’s top Democrat, demanded that the government’s watchdog investigate whether the Trump administration’s cuts to the National Weather Service’s workforce increased the death toll.
The strength of the flood was depicted by a 22-year-old woman who was swept 20 miles downstream and survived by clinging to a tree until help arrived.
More than 850 people had been rescued by Tuesday morning, with Texas Governor Greg Abbott stating that over 1,750 personnel from 20 state agencies had been deployed so far to respond to flood threats.
As the hopes of finding survivors faded, hundreds of emergency responders continued to search through the debris.
“Texas is working tirelessly to assist local officials with recovery and rescue operations,” Abbott wrote on X Monday. “Texas will not stop until every missing person is found.”
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