Which way will Senate swing in 2026? Here are 11 pivotal races that will decide.
WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump's agenda in the second half of his second term will hinge on whether Republicans can maintain control of Congress in next year's midterm elections.
In the Senate, where the GOP currently has a slim 53 to 47 majority, being the party in charge is vital for the president and his ability to pass key legislation priorities, confirm nominees, including any potential Supreme Court vacancies.
Heading into 2026, congressional Republicans look to keep their legislative advantage but face the challenge of precedent. Often, the party that does not hold the White House – Democrats, currently – fares better in midterm congressional elections. In need of a pick me up after last year’s bruising presidential and congressional elections, Democrats are trying to flip the upper chamber back to blue by winning a handful of states scattered from the South to the Great Lakes.
For their part, Republicans trying to defend their majority in next November’s races must first weather some base-splitting primaries, in which established GOP incumbents hope to hold on against challengers from inside their own party.
Here are 11 Senate races to watch across the country heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
1. North Carolina
North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper speaks during a rally held by Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, at Coastal Credit Union Music Park at Walnut Creek, in Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S., October 30, 2024. REUTERS/Sam Wolfe
His news, which Tillis called “not a hard choice,” came as debates over Trump’s sweeping tax, spending and policy bill engulfed Congress and pitted GOP members against one another.
The news was music to Democrats’ ears.
Already a top target for the liberal party in next year’s midterms, the North Carolina race was set to be one of the most competitive Senate battles in 2026, even with Tillis on the ballot.
Co-Chair of the Republican National Committee Lara Trump (R) speaks as RNC Chairman Michael Whatley looks on during the 2025 Republican National Committee (RNC) winter meeting on January 17, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Now, the open seat has attracted high-profile contenders on both sides of the aisle.
On the Republican side, Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law and former co-chair of the Republican National Committee, said she considered jumping in.
However, after she announced July 24 she would not run for the seat in North Carolina, President Trump gave his backing to Republican National Committee chair and former North Carolina GOP Chair Michael Whatley.
Primary elections in the state will be held March 3.
2. Michigan
In Michigan, another retiring incumbent has set the stage for a toss-up race next year.
Sen. Gary Peters, a Democrat, announced in January he would not seek a third term representing the Great Lakes State in the Senate.
His absence leaves the race open for either party's taking.
Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman with Trump’s endorsement, is his party’s expected nominee. Rogers ran in 2024, narrowly losing to Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin.
Among Democrats, Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow lead the pack of 2026 candidates. Primary elections in the state will be held Aug. 4, 2026.
3. Georgia
US Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) arrives to speak during a campaign rally with former US President Barack Obama supporting US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris at the James R Hallford Stadium in Clarkston, Georgia on October 24, 2024. (Photo by Drew ANGERER / AFP) (Photo by DREW ANGERER/AFP via Getty Images)
Georgia’s Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff must fend off a pack of conservative lawmakers in order to hang onto his seat in 2026.
Alongside fellow Georgia Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock, Ossoff's win in a Jan. 2021 runoff election secured him a first term in Congress and his party a chamber majority.
Once again, his race will be key in determining whether Democrats win control of the Senate.
Republicans looking to unseat him include Rep. Buddy Carter, a former pharmacist who represents the Savannah area.
Carter was first to throw his red hat in the ring. But others, including Rep. Mike Collins, have since joined the contest. Both Carter and Collins are coveting Trump's support, an endorsement that could carry weight with Georgia’s deep red electorate pockets.
Georgia's primary elections are set for May 19.
4. Texas
Texas Republican Sen. John Cornyn stands a good chance of winning a fifth term against a Democratic challenger next November, in the red-leaning Lone Star State.
But first, he must make it through what is promising to be a tough primary against the state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton.
Cornyn has served in the Senate since 2002, but early polls showed him down double digits to Paxton.
Texas Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred reacts at a campaign rally, of Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris with singer Beyonce, in Houston, Texas, U.S., October 25, 2024.
National Republicans have expressed concern that Paxton, who has faced indictments, impeachment and, more recently, a very public divorce, could cost the GOP their safely held Texas seat in a general election.
Democrat and former Rep. Colin Allred, who ran unsuccessfully against Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024, has announced his campaign for 2026. Texas state Rep. James Talarico has said he is “seriously considering” a run as well.
Primary elections in the Lone Star State are scheduled for March 3.
5. South Carolina
Paul Dans, the original author of Project 2025, a sweeping conservative agenda to overhaul the federal government, announced his entrance into the race at an event in Charleston July 30.
The primary contest will likely pit MAGA voters in the Palmetto State against one another.
Though Graham has previously been a regular target of criticism from Trump − displeased by the lawmaker at times breaking from the GOP leader − he is currently an ally to the president and has already received Trump's “complete and total endorsement.”
Dans' primary challenge will be an uphill battle. Should Graham come out on top, he is heavily favored to win a fifth term representing the Palmetto State.
A pack of Democrats are vying to face Graham or Dans in the general, though South Carolina is generally considered a safely red seat. Both party primaries will be held June 9.
6. Maine
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is about to wrap her fifth term in the Senate, and while she has yet to formally announce her bid for reelection, many colleagues expect her to run again.
Her position as one of the upper chamber’s most independent voices has kept her in favor, and in office, with her left-leaning state, though Democrats still see this upcoming race as one of their top pick-up opportunities if two-term Gov. Janet Mills decides to run.
Collins has garnered a reputation for being one of the few congressional Republicans willing to tell Trump no. She voted against two of his major legislative priorities this summer – a sweeping tax and spending bill, as well as a $9 billion cut to public broadcasting and foreign aid funding – and has openly criticized some of the president’s nominees.
Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) tells U.S. President Donald Trump "See you in court" over the issue of trans women in sports as Trump addresses a meeting of governors at the White House on February 21, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Willingness to oppose Trump typically comes with the president’s full public ire – and often a MAGA-aligned primary opponent.
However, Collins is the only Republican senator to have won a state in which Democrats won the popular vote in 2024. Her unique position seems to, at least for now, have kept Trump from speaking out against who many view as the GOP’s best chance to keep their seat in Maine.
Several Democratic candidates have announced campaigns against Collins, including David Costello, who ran unsuccessfully against Maine’s Independent Sen. Angus King in 2024. All eyes are most focused on Mills, the state governor who has also tussled with Trump but hasn't yet said if she will run. Maine will have its primaries on June 9.
7. Minnesota
Minnesota's Democratic Sen. Tina Smith announced earlier this year her plan to retire at the end of her current term, calling the decision "entirely personal."
With the state's blue tilt, Smith's seat has a good chance of staying in Democrats' hands.
US Republican Senate candidate Royce White speaks during a radio program at the Minnesota State Fair on August 29, 2024 in Falcon Heights, Minnesota.
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Annie Craig are among the frontrunners for their party's nomination. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris' running mate, opted back in February not to run for Senate.
On the Republican side, former NBA player Royce White is running again, after losing his bid against Sen. Amy Klobuchar in 2024. Former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze has also announced his campaign for the GOP nomination. The Minnesota primaries will be held Aug. 11.
8. Ohio
The Buckeye State represents one of Democrats' few pick up opportunities, and even then it will not be an easy flip.
Republican Sen. Jon Husted was picked by Ohio's governor to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance at the start of the year, and Husted will be on the ballot next November to keep his spot.
Ohio has become reliably red in recent years, making the fight to flip it tough for Democrats.
Their best shot likely is former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his bid for reelection last year to Sen. Bernie Moreno. Axios reported that Brown met with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in late July, as part of the top Senate Democrat's efforts to lobby Brown to run again.
9. New Hampshire
Congressman Chris Pappas (D-NH) and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) speak during an election eve campaign event on November 07, 2022 in Manchester, New Hampshire.
Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, who launched his campaign in April, is widely seen as a strong contender to succeed Shaheen.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump (L) stands with former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown off stage at a campaign rally where Brown endorsed Trump in Milford, New Hampshire, February 2, 2016.
Republican Scott Brown, a former Massachusetts senator and ex-ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa under Trump's first term, is among a handful of candidates competing on the GOP side.
10. Iowa
In Iowa, Sen. Joni Ernst, a Republican, has the advantage, with Cook Political Report rating her race likely Republican.
Three Democrats so far have launched bids in hopes of beating those odds: Nathan Sage, the former chamber of commerce director from Knoxville; state Rep. J.D. Scholten; and state Sen. Zach Wahls.
Iowa Rep. JD Scholten, D-Sioux City, speaks in the Iowa House on Wednesday, March 22, 2023, at the Iowa State Capitol in Des Moines, Iowa.
Trump's sweeping tax, spending and policy bill, passed into law earlier this summer, is expected to be a defining issue in Iowa's race.
Ernst was one of 50 Senate Republicans who voted in favor of the legislation, which her Democratic opponents decried as a move "to gut Medicaid for hundreds of thousands of Iowa children and families." The primary in Iowa is scheduled for June 2.
11. Nebraska
Nebraska is widely seen as a Republican stronghold with incumbent GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts, though there could be a surprisingly competitive race in 2026 with Independent candidate Dan Osborn jumping back into a statewide election.
Osborn, a former labor leader, is a registered Independent but received campaign contributions from Democrats in his last campaign (money he told NBC he did not ask for). Ricketts, a former Nebraska governor and part owner with his family of the Chicago Cubs, is running for a full term after being appointed to the job in January of 2023 upon the resignation of Republican Sen. Ben Sasse.
