D.C. tourism was already struggling. Then the National Guard arrived.

Canden Arciniega was not giving up on summer.

The chief operating officer of Tours By Foot had seen the company suffer a number of setbacks in multiple cities, including D.C. The weather swung between sweltering hot and soaking wet. A decline in international tourism reduced the usual number of visitors. A tepid economy limited spending.

But Arciniega was hopeful for one last hurrah in the final weeks of school vacation. Then, on Aug. 11, President Donald Trump deployed the National Guard in the capital city. Hundreds of troops rolled in and fanned out in tourist areas such as the National Mall and Union Station.

“It has been a marked downturn since the National Guard showed up,” said Arciniega, who has been canceling one or two of the eight to 10 walking tours scheduled each day because of a lack of bookings. “So timing-wise, it could be one of the major factors.”

By several key indicators — marketing forecasts, street-level foot traffic, hotel occupancy — Washington’s tourism economy is sliding. Analysts cite the city’s battered image and mounting fears about security as key drivers. The sight of National Guard troops, now authorized to carry weapons, could risk further chilling demand at a time when the industry can least afford it.

After the doldrums of the pandemic, Washington tourism was looking brighter. In 2024, the city welcomed 27.2 million people, 2.1 million more than 2019, according to Destination DC, the city’s marketing organization. This year, the businesses that depend on visitor spending hit one obstacle after another: widespread federal layoffs, lower attendance than expected at WorldPride and, most recently, Trump’s characterization of the District as a city riddled with crime and gangs.

The week federal forces dispersed across the capital, foot traffic in D.C. dropped 7 percent on average, according to pass_by, which creates estimates by pooling anonymized data from sources such as mobile devices, sensors, cameras and purchases. Restaurant reservations saw an even steeper drop.

Tourism Economics, a data partner for Destination DC, forecast a roughly 5 percent dip in international visitors this year. The prediction was made on June 22, months before the federal takeover.

Speaking at Destination DC’s annual marketing outlook meeting on Tuesday, President and CEO Elliott Ferguson expressed frustration with the images the White House has broadcast to the world. Ferguson said the news has affected public perception of the city before — the 9/11 terrorist attacks, anthrax scare, sniper shootings in 2002, multiple government shutdowns and the Jan. 6 insurrection, which overlapped with the coronavirus pandemic — but Trump’s rhetoric adds a different element.

“The leader of our country in our backyard is giving a false sense of what Washington has to offer as a city,” Ferguson said to a crowd of local business and tourism professionals.

Data compiled by D.C. police showed that total violent crime in the city hit a 30-year low last year. Congress is investigating whether those numbers were manipulated, The Washington Post reported.

Tourism specialists are especially worried about hemorrhaging even more foreign visitors, who typically stay longer (4.7 nights vs. 2.3 nights, on average) and spend more ($1,422 vs. $333) than domestic visitors.

“People need to feel safe and know they can have a good experience that is not going to be impeded by things that make them feel uncomfortable,” Ferguson said in an interview after the event. “That’s a huge part of what we’re going to focus on.”

To counter the negative messaging, Destination DC produced a video called “We the People,” starring a diverse group of residents smitten with their city. Created before the takeover, the valentine to D.C. is more relevant today than it was a few weeks ago.

Members of the National Guard assist a tourist with directions to the Smithsonian's National Air and Space Museum.

Mixed reaction to troops

In D.C. this month, visitors roaming the city could encounter troops in camouflage fatigues. This week, Trump put some of them on trash pickup and landscaping duty. There’s also a chance of running into Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents who are apprehending people off the street.

For more than four decades, Chekitan Dev, a professor at Cornell University’s Nolan School of Hotel Administration, has tracked hospitality surveys on what makes a destination appealing. Safety and security are often the top attribute, he said.

According to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, Dev pointed out, safety comes second after physiological needs, which include air, water, food and shelter — “whether it applies to life or to tourism.”

Last weekend, female hockey players from multiple states were celebrating their tournament win with hot dogs from a food truck on the National Mall. Dressed in matching Hawaiian shirts and yellow baseball caps, the athletes said they didn’t feel threatened or protected by the soldiers in the national park. Unsettled, yes, and pity, too.

“It is definitely a weird vibe of just going about your business to get a hot dog and there are military people everywhere you look, aimlessly walking around,” said Alanna Szypura, the sole local resident in the group of six. “I feel kind of bad for them, because they’re probably really hot.”

Andrea and Norman Calix, a married couple from the Dallas area, were visiting for a “cradle of democracy” tour of the East Coast. They started in D.C. with the landmarks on the National Mall, before going to Philadelphia to see the Liberty Bell and New York City to visit the 9/11 Memorial.

A few days before departing, Andrea learned about the troops and grew concerned. “I was scared and almost canceled the trip,” she said. They overcame their reservations and flew to D.C.

“We will enjoy ourselves, but we’re prepared,” Norman said, reaching into his backpack and wallet to reveal a U.S. passport book and card. Born in El Salvador, he immigrated to the states as a child. Though a U.S. citizen, he is wary of ICE.

Alejandro Buxton, the 15-year-old founder of Smell of Love, spends many weekends selling his homemade candles at markets around the D.C. area. He has noticed lighter foot traffic and lower energy levels in once-vibrant shopping destinations such as Eastern Market. At the Southeast site, his August sales have plummeted since last month, which he attributes to tariffs, inflation and the presence of National Guard forces. Buxton said the troops make D.C. feel like a city under lockdown.

“It’s like people are afraid to come out and shop,” the Virginia high school sophomore said by email.

Compared with 2024, most D.C. neighborhoods saw fewer people on their streets this summer, according to pass_by data. Entertainment and shopping corridors were hit especially hard from June through August.

Arciniega said she has heard from out-of-towners that they are shying away from D.C. because of concerns about high crime, not because of the National Guard. In fact, some tourgoers view the soldiers as simply another D.C. attraction. One family was excited to recognize a troop from their home state.

“The tourists generally are like, ‘Oh cool, let’s take a picture with them,’” she said.

On Sunday afternoon, Patricia and John McWhorter, a mother and son, strolled the National Mall. The pair had seen two National Guard members by a Metro station.

Patricia, who was visiting from Miami, said she always worried about her child, a lawyer and musician living in the D.C. area. Additional security was comforting, she said.

“I have three sons, two at home and him here, so I will worry regardless,” Patricia said. “Anything that makes the city a little bit more secure, I’m grateful for.”

A member of the National Guard eats his lunch on a bench at the National Mall.

‘Challenging’ year ahead

Despite the sobering statistics that Destination DC presented Tuesday, the organization tried to create an upbeat atmosphere. Many attendees appeared to be dressed for a garden party instead of a morning meeting with charts and graphs. DuPont Brass, a local ensemble heavy on the horns, turned the Southeast venue into a dancehall.

Ferguson appeared in a video spoofing “Love Is Blind,” the reality show that filmed its seventh season in the D.C. area. He was also candid.

He informed the crowd that 41 groups had decided against holding their conferences in D.C. next year. The meetings could have generated $54.4 million for the city, according to Destination DC. He admitted that “2026 will be challenging,” alluded to a drastic cut in the organization’s marketing budget and acknowledged the difficulty of formulating a five-year plan.

“Covid should have taught us an invaluable lesson about what we thought would happen versus what actually does happen,” he told two Post reporters after the event. “Hopefully the disrupters are short-term, but we always have to have a plan to deal with the anticipated disrupters, whatever they are.”

Tourism makes up a modest slice of Washington’s economy. Including everything from arts and recreation to restaurants and hotels, that category made up about 4.2 percent of the city’s gross domestic product in 2023, compared with the federal government’s commanding 30.8 percent slice of the local economy, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Still, D.C. tourism revenue runs slightly above the national average and ranks high nationally in performing arts, museums and accommodations.

Across the country, other cities are confronting similar headwinds. D.C. can take solace in the fact that it is not alone, nor is it the worst off.

Nationwide, the number of international visitors was down 2.4 percent in the first seven months of this year compared with 2024, and 11.4 percent below 2019 figures, according to Tourism Economics.

After Trump toyed with the idea of turning Canada, the largest foreign market for U.S. destinations, into the 51st state, the country turned a cold shoulder to its southern neighbor. Through July, the number of Canadians entering the United States by land has fallen by 30 percent compared to last year. Air arrivals have declined by 14 percent.

“We have an office in Canada. We’re probably not be going to spend money in Canada,” Ferguson said. “By the way, Canada, Destination DC does want D.C. to be the 51st state.”

More than 20 new or renovated hotels are in the city’s pipeline, Ferguson told the marketing audience. The number of rooms in the city will grow by more than 3,000. Great if you have guests clamoring for the beds — but D.C. doesn’t.

Vendors and event organizers frequently cite “uncertainty” and “political climate” as reasons for cancellations and postponements.

Jonathan Robledo, director of sales at Encore, which stages corporate and government events at local hotels, said clients are booking much closer to their event dates — sometimes just a month in advance — rather than a year out.

Hotels have been lowering rates to keep visitors coming, but the outlook is dim. Even with the planned celebrations for the nation’s 250th anniversary next year, D.C. is projecting a 2 percent decline in revenue per room compared with 2025, while the national hotel industry expects flat growth.

Marriott, in a note to investors on Aug. 5, said government demand had weakened and smaller business customers were pulling back, leading to a 1.5 percent decline in revenue per room compared with a year earlier.

Meade Atkeson, regional director of operations at Sonesta Hotels and Resorts, said his two D.C. properties used to entice prospective guests with the city’s world-class museums, neighborhoods, music and food. Now, they emphasize the lower crime rate.

“A lot of the messaging is trying to give the real facts, unfortunately,” Atkeson said.

Arciniega, the tour guide, has incorporated the National Guard into her spiel, using the takeover as a civics lesson on D.C. politics — how residents pay federal taxes but do not have representation in Congress.

“This is what life is like as a D.C. resident,” Arciniega will tell them.

Andrew Van Dam contributed to this report.