NEW MEXICO (KRQE) – Monsoon season officially runs from June 15 through September 30. During the monsoon season, states in the southwest can see heavy rain, strong thunderstorms, and flash flooding along with very hot temperatures. KRQE’s Chief Meteorologist Grant Tosterud explains what people should expect this monsoon season.

What is the monsoon?

The monsoon is a seasonal change in wind direction. Most of the year, New Mexico and the Southwest experience a dry westerly wind, with occasional storm systems. However, during the summer months, winds become more southerly, drawing up moisture from the Gulf and the Pacific Ocean. This change in wind pattern brings increased rainfall and storms to the Southwestern United States, including New Mexico. While monsoon season typically starts in the middle of June, a majority of the monsoon rain falls in July and August. The monsoon brings roughly 50% of New Mexico’s annual precipitation during this three and a half month long season.

Thunderstorms can bring a risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. While the monsoon season usually means the end of the fire season, heavy rain can fall over burn scar areas and also lead to flash flooding. Lightning is another threat during the monsoon season. Thunderstorms can also cause very strong wind gusts, which could cause damage and areas of blowing dust.

What happened last year?

New Mexico experienced an early surge of moisture last year thanks to a tropical storm that formed in the Gulf of Mexico and a strong area of high pressure to the east that drew up moisture into the state. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding have occurred in Albuquerque and other parts of the state within the first week of this year’s monsoon season. On June 29th,1.48″ of rain fell in Albuquerque with a severe storm that brought flash flooding and damaging winds to much of the city. It was one of the wettest days in Albuquerque’s recorded history.

Last year was one of the driest monsoon seasons on record in New Mexico. There were a few places though, that saw heavy rain. Burn scar areas were especially prone to flash flooding. Two wildfires broke out in the Ruidoso area in June, quickly burning roughly 17,000 acres combined. These two burn scars were the focus of extreme burn scar flash flooding events that wiped away roads, houses, and buildings in parts of Ruidoso. The National Weather Service issued a record-setting number of Flash Flood Emergencies in the state due to burn scar flash flooding.

Percent of average precipitation: Percent of average is calculated by dividing the total accumulated precipitation by the long-term (1991-2020) mean and is an indication of how much totals have deviated from average precipitation for the June 15, 2024 to September 30, 2024 period. 100% is equal to average.

What can New Mexicans expect this year?

Climate forecast models are forecasting a better monsoon than last year for most of the state. They suggest that there could be an active start to the monsoon season in July before it slows down a little in August and especially September. July is usually when we see the onset of the monsoon in New Mexico.

Albuquerque averages 4.61″ of rainfall at the Sunport from June 15 through September 30. This average rainfall can vary widely based on location, with generally higher rainfall amounts the closer you get to the Sandias. It is impossible to say exactly how much rain you will see in your neighborhood, but based on forecast models, near-average rainfall is expected across the Metro. However, it can sometimes take just one storm to push the total rainfall for the season to above average.

Across the rest of the state, there is high confidence of near to above average rainfall across western New Mexico, with near to slightly below average rainfall in the eastern plains. Between these two areas, near-average rainfall is likely. The heaviest rain will focus across the western and northern mountains. Unfortunately, more burn scar flash flooding is likely this summer, especially over the South Fork and Salt Fire burn scar areas in the Sacramento Mountains and the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar area in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. It is extremely important this monsoon season to have a way to receive weather warnings and information.

Last year was the 4th hottest monsoon on record in New Mexico. We are very confident that temperatures will again be above average across the entire state this summer. This is due to a strong Four Corners high-pressure system that will sit over the state.

What you can do to stay safe

“Turn Around, Don’t Drown.” Never drive or walk across flooded roadways. It only takes 6″ of rushing water to wipe a person off their feet, and only about 1′ to 2′ of water to float most vehicles, including SUVs.
Have a way to receive weather warnings and information, whether it’s alerts on your smartphone or a weather radio.
Find breaks from the heat. While the monsoon is known for its thunderstorms, it’s also the hottest time of the year. Make sure you drink plenty of water and take breaks from the heat.
“When thunder roars, go indoors.” Lightning is one of the most unpredictable parts of thunderstorms, and the second-deadliest weather event behind flooding. Watch for signs of an approaching thunderstorm. Head inside and postpone outdoor activities if thunderstorms are near.
Tune into KRQE, KRQE.com, KRQE Now, and follow all the KRQE meteorologists on social media for the latest weather information.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to KRQE NEWS 13 - Breaking News, Albuquerque News, New Mexico News, Weather, and Videos.