Altcoin Season Has Finally Arrived — Here's the Path Forward
Key Takeaways
- The Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) fell after a rejection from resistance.
- The Altcoin Dominance has broken out from a descending wedge pattern.
- Has Altcoin season finally started, and if so, how much time is left?
The ongoing market cycle has not been kind to altcoins. While the Bitcoin (BTC) price continuously reached new all-time highs, most altcoins have not.
The rising Bitcoin Dominance perfectly encapsulates this, showing that BTC has outperformed most altcoins.
However, there are cracks in the Bitcoin Dominance chart, which could develop into a full-blown altcoin season.
Will there be an altcoin season in 2025? Let's examine a few charts and answer that question.
Bitcoin Dominance Wanes
While there have been declines within this pattern, BTC mostly traded in the channel's upper portion.
The main exception was three weeks in December 2024, which ended with a strong bounce (green icon) and new highs.
While BTCD reached a high of 65.38% in May, it created a bearish engulfing candlestick, confirming the 64% area as resistance.
While the BTCD has not yet fallen in the channel's lower portion, it shows some of the most bearish signs since the rally started.
The shorter-term BTC dominance chart aligns with this reading, since its shows a rejection at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance of 64%.
The 0.618 Fibonacci level commonly acts as the top if the rally is corrective.
The minimal target for the downward movement would be 60.81%, giving waves A and C the same length.
However, the Bitcoin Dominance could go much lower if the decline is a five-wave downward movement. In that case, a breakdown from the long-term channel is possible.
Altcoins Show Strength
The Altcoins dominance chart shows the relative strength of medium-cap altcoins by charting their market caps against Bitcoin, excluding the 10 biggest altcoins.
If the count is accurate, the decline is over since altcoins broke out from a descending wedge, an ending diagonal.
Currently, they are attempting to validate the wedge as support (green icon).
When Will Altcoin Season Start?
The BTCD decline aligns perfectly with an altcoin dominance breakout.
While it is unclear how long the increase will continue, the minimum target is a BTCD decline to 60%.
