Dangerous city-killer asteroid still poses unique threat to Earth

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is back!

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is back!, Concerns across the world, An impact was ruled out, It still threatens the moon, Not enough info at the moment, The asteroid is beyond our view, It has a 4% chance of hitting the moon, An impact is relatively unlikely, Moon impacts are a rare event, It would be visible from Earth, A new crater and space debris, The threat an impact poses, Dangerous space debris, The largest impact on 5,000 years, Why we should be a bit worried

Asteroid 2024 YR4 made news headlines all around the world after it became clear that the previously unknown space rock had a minor chance of impacting the Earth in 2032. 

Concerns across the world

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Discovered in December 2024, information about Asteroid 2024 YR4 quickly spread as news about its possible impact trajectory with Earth concerned scientists and people across the planet.

Photo Credit: ESA-Science Office

An impact was ruled out

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At its worst point, astronomers gave the asteroid an approximately 3% chance of hitting our planet. However, the chances of a future impact were later ruled out with more data. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By NASA/JPL, Public Domain

It still threatens the moon

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Despite Earth being in the clear, scientists haven’t ruled out the possibility that Asteroid 2024 YR4 could slam into the moon in 2032, according to the European Space Agency. 

Not enough info at the moment

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Researchers got their final glimpse of Asteroid 2024 YR4 near the start of 2025, and by March, they had enough information to rule out an impact with Earth, but not the moon. 

The asteroid is beyond our view

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Unfortunately, Asteroid 2024 YR4 has passed beyond our view at the moment, and we won’t be able to collect more data on its trajectory until it's back in view in June 2028. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By A. S. Rivkin et al./NASA/ESA - JWST, Public Domain

It has a 4% chance of hitting the moon

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According to the European Space Agency, astronomers give Asteroid 2024 YR4 a 4% chance of hitting the moon in 2032, which also means there's a 96% chance it will not. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By NASA/JPL Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, Public Domain

An impact is relatively unlikely

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“A lunar impact remains unlikely, and no one knows what the exact effects would be,” said Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s Planetary Defence Office.

Moon impacts are a rare event

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“It is a very rare event for an asteroid this large to impact the Moon – and it is rarer still that we know about it in advance,” Moissl added. However, if it did, we would know it. 

It would be visible from Earth

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Asteroid 2024 YR4 is believed to be somewhere between 53 and 67 metres (187 and 219 feet) in diameter. Moissl noted that if the asteroid did hit the moon, it would likely be visible from Earth, as would its aftereffects.

A new crater and space debris

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“It would certainly leave a new crater on the surface. Moissl explained. “However, we wouldn’t be able to accurately predict in advance how much material would be thrown into space, or whether any would reach Earth.”

The threat an impact poses

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Live Science cited a recent study on the situation, which was uploaded to the preprint server arXiv on June 12th, found that upwards of 220 million pounds (100 million kilograms) could be thrown out into space if Asteroid 2024 YR4 hits the moon. 

Photo Credit: Wiki Commons By Sinucep, Own Work, CC0

Dangerous space debris

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The researchers explained that if Asteroid 2024 YR4 slams into the Earth-facing side of the moon, something they reported was a roughly 50/50 chance, then up to 10% of the debris from the impact could be pulled into Earth’s gravity in the days that followed the impact.

The largest impact on 5,000 years

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Lead author of the study, Paul Wiegert, an expert in solar system dynamics at Western University in Ontario, reportedly told the French news outlet AFP that if Asteroid 2024 YR4 does hit the moon, it will be the largest impact in 5,000 years. 

Why we should be a bit worried

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The impact and its debris likely wouldn’t pose a direct threat to humans on Earth, but humanity’s space-based infrastructure would be at risk. Debris could be pulled close to the planet and increase the risk of meteor impacts to our satellites by 1000 times. 

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