Recent Shifts in Canadian-Resident Travel to the United States

The United States Remains Canada’s Top Travel Destination

For decades, the United States has been the primary international destination for Canadian travelers, thanks to its close proximity and warmer climate. In 2024 alone, Canadian residents made 39 million trips to the U.S., representing 75% of all international travel from Canada.

However, early 2025 data indicate that this strong travel connection may be starting to weaken.

Sharp Decline in Automobile Travel Across the Border

When examining return trips by Canadian residents, officials focus on two main categories: travel by car and travel by air. Since the U.S.-Canada border stretches thousands of kilometers, nearly three-quarters of trips happen by automobile.

Because these trips require less advance planning and lower upfront expenses, they tend to be more sensitive to changes in traveler sentiment. Preliminary data show that returns by car have fallen dramatically in 2025.

For five months in a row, year-over-year figures declined steeply. In May alone, automobile return trips dropped by 38.1% compared to May 2024, a decline even sharper than the 35.2% recorded in April.

This was the first significant drop since early 2021, when COVID-19 restrictions were still in place.

Same-Day Excursions Plummet After Years of Stability

Historically, same-day car trips across the border have remained relatively steady, only dropping after major disruptions like the September 11 attacks (-31.2%) and the 2008 financial crisis (-22.8%). In early 2025, this pattern was disrupted again.

Same-day returns plunged by 40.3% year over year in May, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. Overnight trips were also impacted, falling by 34.3% during the same period.

Declines Widespread Across Provinces and Border Ports

The downward trend in cross-border travel extended across every province that shares a border with the United States. For the first time since the pandemic, all border provinces reported simultaneous declines.

Among the highest-volume regions, Quebec saw the steepest drop in same-day returns in May (-52.5%), followed by British Columbia (-52.3%) and Ontario (-33.7%). Windsor, Ontario—home to some of Canada’s busiest land crossings—experienced a 17.5% decline in same-day returns compared to May of the previous year.

Air Travel to the U.S. Also Continues to Slide

Trips by air, which make up nearly all overnight tourism to the United States, account for roughly 19% of Canadian returns from abroad. Unlike automobile travel, air travel had already been declining on a consistent basis since September 2023.

That trend continued into 2025: returns by air fell 14.0% in April and plunged 24.2% in May year over year.

International Arrivals to the U.S. Decrease Across Multiple Regions

Canada is not alone in this shift. According to U.S.

International Trade Administration data, arrivals from Europe also dropped in early 2025. Western European visits to the United States fell by 17% in March compared to the previous year.

Although there was a rebound in April (+12.1% year over year), cumulative international arrivals were still down slightly (-0.2%) relative to 2024. Canada experienced a similar pattern in inbound tourism, with overseas arrivals falling by 17.2% in February and 17.4% in March before stabilizing to a 0.6% decline in April.

Outlook: A Potential Shift in Canadian Travel Preferences

Overall, Canadian-resident travel abroad dropped by 18.9% in April 2025, primarily due to the decline in U.S.-bound trips. In contrast, Canadian travel to other overseas destinations grew by 8.8% year over year, pushing the share of international trips beyond the United States from 26.9% in April 2024 to 36.1% in April 2025.

Whether these changes signal a temporary fluctuation or a lasting transformation in travel preferences remains to be seen.

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